Large parts of sub-Saharan Africa experience both low average rainfall and periodic and severe
droughts. In a worst-case scenario these droughts precipitate famines, widespread loss of life
and massive social and economic upheavals. In such circumstances it is not surprising that
governments face strong incentives to engage in drought relief measures both on humanitarian
and economic grounds. However, the policy choices are not straightforward. Low rainfall and
high temperatures in many of Africa’s drought prone areas severely limit arable production and
encourage extensive livestock production. Consequently the implications of drought for
livestock and crop production are likely to differ.
In the event of a drought crop production will fall off rapidly, and thereby induce of
shortfall in supply by domestic producers. However, livestock are more resilient to drought
provided supplies of drinking water can be maintained. As the shortage of fodder develops so
farmers must respond by reducing in livestock numbers, but the declining price for livestock
resulting from both supply and demand side changes will induce a reluctance to sell livestock.
Nevertheless any additional livestock income will, at least in the short term, compensate for the
decline in crop income.2 But any reduction in the breeding herd, or delay in reproduction, will
reduce livestock off-take rates, and therefore income, in subsequent years. Consequently the
relative prices of food products will change appreciably, and the sequencing of price changes
will differ. These responses raise questions about the ordering and magnitudes of drought relief
programmes.