The recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases
along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer, is a serious problem for the country. Breast
cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. Lampang is a province in the upper
part of Northern Thailand. A study was needed to identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast
cancer in upper Northern Thai women. Materials and Methods: Here we used cancer incidence data from the
Lampang Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the local incidence of breast cancer. Joinpoint analysis,
age period cohort model and Nordpred package were used to investigate the incidences of breast cancer in the
province from 1993 to 2012 and to project future trends from 2013 to 2030. Results: Age-standardized incidence
rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper parts of Northern Thailand increased from 16.7 to 26.3 cases per
100,000 female population which is equivalent to an annual percentage change of 2.0-2.8%, according to the
method used. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence. The three projection method
suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women aged 50 and
above, increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. Conclusions: The current early detection
measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities and human
resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.