This study was conducted in the frame of the ANR/Heveadapt project, in southern
Thailand (Phatthalung province), to analyse how smallholders’ tree plantations can
adapt and remain sustainable while facing variable climatic conditions, and deep
changes in their socio-economic context. The study focus on rubber-based agro-forestry
systems developed in mature plantations in order to understand the extent to which
rubber, associated crops, trees, livestock, and off-farm activities, respectively contribute
to income stability and resilience. The analysis was mainly based on evaluation of
socio-economic performances at two scales: the cropping system and the farming
system using farming system modeling with the software Olympe. The characterization
of farm economic structure shed light on two main strategies used by farmers to sustain
their income while facing rubber price volatility. The best agro-forestry system, both in
terms of land valorization and labor valorization, seems to be associating rubber trees
with fruit trees and timber trees. Farmers also undertake off-farm activities in order to
complement their family income. Those two strategies can be combined in different
ways. Prospective modeling showed that most farms were more robust to rubber price
volatility, due to the flexibility of their agro-forestry systems. Farmers, who did not have
agro-forestry systems, were weakened by over-reliance on rubber trees.