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Citation Information

Type Report
Title Iringa Regional and District Projections.
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2006
URL http://ihi.eprints.org/589/
Abstract
This report presents population projections for the period 2003 to 2025 for Iringa Region and its districts. The projections were made using a Cohort Component Method (Spectrum System), whereby three components responsible for population change, namely: mortality, fertility and migration were projected separately as well as HIV/AIDS prevalence. The projected components were then applied to 2002 midyear base population in order to come up with the desired projections from 2003 to 2025. The report gives mortality, fertility, migration and HIV/AIDS assumptions, and shows Iringa’s demographic and socio-economic future trends. The results include estimated population by sex in single years and five-year age groups as well as some demographic indicators. Population growth for the period 2003 to 2025 shows a decrease in growth rates. The projections show that population growth rate will decrease from 1.6 percent in 2003 (with a population of 1,520,891) to 0.4 percent in 2025 (with a population of 2,019,217). Sex Ratio at birth is projected to increase from 90 male births per 100 females in 2003 to 99 male births per 100 females in 2025. Mortality estimates show that Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is expected to decline for both sexes from 127 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 78 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025. Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) for both sexes will also decline from 207 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 122 deaths per 1,000 live births in the year 2025. The mortality projected estimates further show that the life expectancy at birth for both males and females stands at 45 years in 2003. Life expectancy at birth for Iringa will decline from 45 years in 2003 to 44 years in 2025 for both sexes. For male population, life expectancy at birth will remain at the same level of 45 years in year 2003 and year 2025, while for female population the life expectancy at birth will decline from 45 years in 2003 to 43 years in 2025. On fertility, TFR will decline from 4.9 children per woman in 2003 to 2.6 children per woman in 2025.

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Mkai, PB, AM Kaimu, SM Aboud, AA Chuwa, BH Amour, GL Ntimba, M Mbonile, I Ngalinda, and A Chuma. Iringa Regional and District Projections.. 2006.
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