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Citation Information

Type Journal Article - NBER Working Papers
Title AIDS, reversal of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2006
URL http://www.uh.edu/econpapers/RePEc/hou/wpaper/2006-05.pdf
Abstract
Using a panel of African countries during 1985-2000, I show that HIV/AIDS affects fertility rates positively and enrollment rates negatively. The evidence provides support for models of fertility transition emphasizing the demand for children, highlighting a specific mechanism through which demographic transition affects economic growth. Parents who are faced with high mortality rates for adolescents choose to have more children and provide each of them with less education. The empirical estimates predict that a country with a high level of HIV/AIDS prevalence, such as Congo, have 2 more children per woman and 38 percentage points less school enrollment compared to a country with a low level of HIV/AIDS prevalence, such as Madagascar

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