Adjusting fertility to weather shocks. What implications for food security?

Type Working Paper
Title Adjusting fertility to weather shocks. What implications for food security?
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2015
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/economics/currentStudents/researchStudents/EDPjamboree/Bertelli_PSE_EDPpaper.pd​f
Abstract
Despite the worldwide decrease of fertility rates, Sub-Saharan Africa is still an
exception, showing an almost non-declining trend in the past 50 years. One of the
potential reasons is that in risky environments the chances of children dying are still
large. Risk-aversion against child mortality might, hence, push parents to have a hoard
of children. By exploiting positive exogenous weather shocks, this paper looks at the
adjustment of the reproductive behaviour once the risk of child mortality is relaxed. I
show that large households having benefited from abundant rainfall have fewer children
dying (the weak ones survive thanks to the shock). As a response, households decrease
the number of newborns. However, the overall number of children increases, because
parents only partially reduce their fertility. Such partial adjustment has multiple
effects in terms of household food security. Dietary changes decrease food quality and,
given the increased number of children, adults reduce their own food consumption to
buffer the young children.

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