— Dramatic demographic changes accompanied the decay and collapse of the Soviet
Union. This paper considers their long-run economic effects, particularly with respect to impacts
on government budgetary positions due to social transfers. Using a detailed actuarial forecasting
model for the Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan, the paper demonstrates that the effect of
the transition will be felt far into the 21st century, as government budget pressures to meet social
expenditure needs result in lower savings rates and higher public debt.
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