The dramatic changes in fertility that occurred in China during the
past few decades are well known. The 1982 One-per-Thousand Fertility
Sampling Survey of China reveals that the total fertility rate fell from 5.81 at
the beginning of 1950 to 2.63 in 1981.The factors fostering the fertility transition in China are a matter of
debate among demographers. Quite a few demographers have attributed
this demographic phenomenon to the family planning programme implemented
by the Chinese Government.2/ It is, however, very interesting to ask
whether fertility in China would have declined without government support
of family planning services. One may also ask why China’s fertility patterns
and trends differ in urban and rural areas in spite of a uniform intensification
of population policies throughout the country, and whether these differences
could have resulted from differences in socio-economic conditions.
We argue that before and since the intensification of population planning
activities, policies that have explicitly attempted to influence fertility change
in accordance with official objectives have been affected by implicit or unintentional
socio-economic forces.
The 1982 population census seems to support the hypothesis. The fertility
transition in China started as early as the mid-1950s. After a “baby
boom” between 1949 and 1954, fertility began to decline after 1955, but its
progress was interrupted by both the three-year famine that followed the
“Great Leap Forward” between 1959 and 1961 and the “Cultural Revolution”
that started in 1966. In 1968, fertility once again began to decline and, since
the 1970s, it has declined precipitously from year to year.3/
This article attempts to examine a broad spectrum of causes related to
institutional and socio-economic developments beyond the Government’s
population policies and family planning programmes. It seems likely that
most of those factors, though implicit or unintentional, are either highly conducive
to the spread of birth control or tend to facilitate the Government’s
efforts to make information, supplies and services accessible to the population.
The study engages in a “speculative discussion” of the likely impacts of
these recent great changes on fertility trends. It focuses on the following
changes: (a) the emancipation of women, (b) the socialization of agriculture
and industry, (c) social security and other welfare benefits, (d) public health
care, (e) the expansion of education, (f) changes in female labour force participation,
(g) the rise in urban residence and (h) the so-called “sendingdown”
campaigns.
It is hoped that the article will contribute to the study of the effect of
different development paths on the transition. If China’s fertility transition
reflects its past population policy decisions, then considerations of
demographic development must be broadened to include the issues of societal
development strategy so important in China’s experience.