The lack of reliable data for child mortality estimation since 1998 has meant that child
mortality rates for South Africa have not been updated for almost ten years now. It is the
overall aim of this research to explore the possibility of determining up-to-date estimates
of South Africa's infant mortality and under-five mortality rates from the 2007
Community Survey data and to use these results to describe the trend in child mortality
rates since 1996.
Ward and Zaba's (2009) variant to Brass's technique is used after adjustment for
the fact that prevalence has only been stable for the last few years to estimate the levels
and trends of infant and under -five mortality rates between 2000 and 2004 using children
ever bom/ children surviving data from the Community Survey. Blacker and Brass's (2005)
variant of the previous birth technique is used to estimate the infant mortality rate circa
2006 from the survival status data of last child bom reported in the 2007 Community
Survey. Direct estimates using data on deaths in the previous year reported by households
are used to estimate both the infant and under-five mortality rates circa 2006.
The 1996 estimates of child mortality are determined from past research.
Reported household child death data in the 2001 census are used to estimate child
mortality rates a year before the 2001 census. These estimates and those obtained from the
2007 Community Survey are used to determine the trend in the completeness of death
registration by age between 1996 and 2006 by assuming a logistic trend. The completeness
of death registration for infants, 1-4 year olds and children under-five in 2006 are
estimated by comparing the national estimates of mortality rates estimated from the
Community Survey to those produced direcdy from the number of reported deaths from
the vital registration and estimates of the mid-year population and births in that year.
Knowledge of the completeness of registration of deaths by age is then used to adjust the
number of deaths from vital registration in each year between 1996 and 2006 and to
determine the child mortality trends in the 10-year period.
1U
University of Cape Town"Infant mortality rates are found to have been almost constandy around 50 deaths
per 1000 live births while under-five mortality rates are found to have increased from just
below 70 deaths per tOoo live births in 1996 to around 75 deaths per tOOO live births
2006. The completeness of death registration of infants improved markedly over the
period from a low of 44 per cent in 1996 to almost 90 per cent in 2006. The increase was
more rapid after 2001. The increase in the registration of deaths of children aged 1-4 years
has not been as dramatic, with an increase from 43 per cent in 1996 to just 63 per cent in
2006.