The fertility level in China is a matter of uncertainty and controversy. This paper applies Preston
and Coale’s (1982) variable-r method to assess the fertility level in China. By using data from China’s
1990 and 2000 censuses as well as annual population change surveys, the variable-r method confi rms
that Chinese fertility has reached a level well below replacement.
he current fertility level in China is a matter of considerable controversy (Guo and
Chen 2007; Lavely 2001; Retherford et al. 2005; Scharping 2007; Zhang and Zhao 2006).
The reported total fertility rate (TFR) was 2.3 in China’s 1990 census and dropped below
replacement level in the early 1990s (Feeney and Yuan 1994; Zeng 1996).1
Since then, the
TFR has remained at about 1.5, with a low of 1.22 reported in the 2000 census, according
to the age-specifi c fertility rates published in the China Population Statistical Yearbook
(National Bureau of Statistics of China [NBS] 1991–2006). A TFR of 1.5 is not only well
below replacement but it is also among the lowest national rates in the world. Many believe
that China’s reported fertility level is too low to be accurate and attribute this rate to the
deterioration of the Chinese statistical system, claiming that a large number of births—particularly
out-of-plan births (births without an offi cial quota)—are underreported in offi cial
enumerations (e.g., Liang 2003; National Population and Family Planning Commission of
China [NPFPC] 2007; Zhang and Cui 2003). Others maintain that fertility in China is indeed
well below replacement level (e.g., Guo 2004; Retherford et al. 2005; Zhang 2004).
This paper applies Preston and Coale’s (1982) variable-r method to assess China’s
fertility level. The variable-r method offers a simple and robust estimate of the net reproduction
rate (NRR). Unlike traditional fertility-estimation methods, which often require
detailed birth records, the variable-r method requires only the relative age distribution in
two enumerations and the proportional birth distribution, both of which are readily available
for China.
I begin with a brief review of the debate over the current fertility level in China, followed
by a discussion of the variable-r method. Because the application of the variable-r
method requires that the data from two enumerations have the same completeness of coverage,
I assess whether major changes in enumeration coverage occurred between the 1990
and the 2000 censuses. Comparison of census and population sample survey data suggests
that the 1990 and 2000 census data are comparable in coverage, which justifi es the usage
of variable-r method. This research confi rms that Chinese fertility has reached a level well
below replacement.