Investigating the relationship between the bank rate, unemployment and inflation: The Phillips curve in Namibia

Type Thesis or Dissertation - Master of Scienece in Economics
Title Investigating the relationship between the bank rate, unemployment and inflation: The Phillips curve in Namibia
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2015
URL http://repository.unam.edu.na/bitstream/handle/11070/1679/Shifotoka_2015.pdf?sequence=1
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between the bank rate, unemployment and inflation rates
in Namibia, and it also interrogates the policy implications of using the bank rate as a policy
instrument not only to maintain price stability, but also to influence the unemployment rate in
Namibia. In the same vein, the study aims to find out whether the Phillips curve is applicable to
the Namibian economy, by using times series data of inflation, unemployment and bank rate
from 1961 to 2012 and employing the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to estimate the
data. The ADF and PP unit root tests are used to test for stationarity in the data and both these
tests find all variables to be stationary at first difference. To test whether a long-run relationship
exists between the variables, the Johannsen cointegration test is used which rejects the null
hypothesis of no cointegration at 5 percent level of significance. This implies that the variables
are associated and move together in the long-run. As a result of the cointegration which is
detected among the series, the vector error correction (VEC) model is then employed to
investigate for short-run properties between the variables. Through the VEC model, the Granger
causality test, impulse response functions as well as the variance decomposition test are
estimated. The Granger causality test identifies a single unidirectional causality in the series in
the case whereby bank rate Granger causes inflation, and this implies that monetary authorities in
Namibia do not make decisions about inflation in isolation from the bank rate. The main results
reveal that the rates of inflation and unemployment in Namibia are significantly explained by the
changes in the bank rate. This means that the bank rate can be used as a suitable policy
instrument to address the two evils of inflation and unemployment in the country. The results
also indicate that the inflation and unemployment rates are inversely related, which confirms the
existence of the Phillips curve in Namibia.

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