Prophesying the end of Europe is a popular pastime. The idea that civilizations
and nations, just like human beings, go through a cycle of rise, shine and decline
is part of the attempt to make sense of, and to seek regularities in the flow of history.
The rise and decline approach to universal history no longer has credibility
amongst professional historians. However, it still echoes in the halls of learning and is
popular among commentators and publicists. This paper discusses various approaches
to universal history, some recent views on the future of Europe, and argues that the
continent’s current demographic situation and outlook can be much better understood if
they are considered in the perspective offered by Arland Thornton’s developmental
paradigm and the concept of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) or revolution.