udan is in a critical political, socio-economic and demographic transition, particularly in the
post-cessation era, together with emerging national opportunities and challenges vis-à-vis the
changing governance in the Arab region and the internationally down-turning economies.
The newly two established post-cessation countries (Sudan and Southern Sudan) have serious
disputes and a long trail to reach a peaceful coexistence. Although the Government has recently
signed Peace Agreement in Doha with some of the Darfuri rebel movements, brutal fighting is
perpetual in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and some pockets in Darfur.
Sudan’s external debt was estimated to have reached about US$ 38 billion in 2010 recording a
rise of 85% of its level in 2000. The oil discovery in 1999 has transformed the economy from
food-producing into a mono-product food-importing and service economy with high vulnerability
to international crises. Oil used to contribute over 95% of merchandise exports and about 50% of
government revenues. Due to the country’s cessation, the Sudan has lost 80% of its oil fields, thus
leaving a highly exposed economy that is hardly able to service its debts, attract FDI, and achieve
tangible progress in the MDGs. Shortage in supply of hard currency has left huge budget deficit
and has nearly doubled the US$ exchange rate against the SDG (from almost a stable rate of SDG
2.0 to above 4.0 in the parallel market). The result has been a sharp increase in prices of almost
all the basic consumer goods/services, thus further worsening the already beleaguered living
conditions of the bulk of the population who are classified as poor.
In recent estimates (2009), Sudan has scored medium human development rate (52%) with 17%
of the population live on less than US$ 1.25 per day. Poverty has been formally estimated to have
engulfed about 47% on national average with enormous variations between and within states,
particularly areas with conflict, pastoralists, displaced, poor/primary production, and dependency
on natural resources. While the lowest ratio of population under the poverty line has been
recorded in Khartoum (26%), the highest has been recorded in Darfur Region (average 62.7% -
North Darfur recorded 69.4%), followed by Kordofan Region (58.7%).
The national poverty map suggests that there are gaps and socio-economic disparities between
states and within the same state at the different locality levels. This situation is increasing the
population dynamics, particularly migration from rural to urban areas, thus further weakening the
productive capacity of the rural economies, deepening poverty in both rural and urban areas, and
widening the regional imbalances with serious implications to national peace and human security.
However, the geographical move has made little change in the life style of most migrants and
IDPs, particularly those who reside in unplanned areas in the fringes of big urban centres.
udan national population census (2008) recorded a net internal migration of about 1.8 million
persons, about 95% of whom were received by Khartoum and the rest (about 100,000) by the
eastern States of Red Sea and Gedarif. While migration was predominantly rural-urban, it has
recently become urban-urban in direction, not planned/prepared for, prompted by push rather
than pull factors, and no longer young-male-selective but involves families and sometimes whole
communities (e.g. IDPs) and businesses (e.g. from periphery towns to the national capital);
sometimes, migration was even a forced one. These are some of the issues that should factor the
population policies and planning (national and state).