The importance of the agricultural sector to overall development has long been recognized. The
contributions of the agricultural sector to the process of national structural transformation, as
summarized by Daniels et al. (1990, 7), include the following: "(1) providing food; (2)
supplying capital especially for the development of the non-farm sector; (3) providing labor for
the expansion of non-farm activities; (4) supplying foreign exchange from export earnings in
order to facilitate the purchase of critical inputs from abroad; and (5) providing a market for the
products of the non-farm sector." In order for the agricultural sector to make these
contributions, it is essential that production exceed the subsistence food needs of the producers.
Surplus production is the engine of capital accumulation, and it releases agricultural labor to
non-agricultural activities.
Agricultural research (broadly defined to include basic, adaptive, and applied research) can lead
to the discovery and diffusion of cost saving techniques which enhance the development process
and shape the development pattern. The nature of the technical change determines whether a
network of consumption, production, and fiscal linkages between the agricultural and nonagricultural
sectors will emerge to contribute to overall economic development. Studies around
the world have shown that it generally takes a minimum of six to ten years for new technologies
to begin to have an impact on agricultural production practices.
The objectives of this rate of return study are as follows: (1) The determination of the rate of
return to previous investments by USAID and GOU in soybean, sunflower, and maize research
in Uganda. (2) Determination of the potential returns to future investment in research on each of
the major oilseeds in Uganda (soybean, sunflower, groundnut, and sesame). This analysis will
systematically consider the impact of other aspects of the technology transfer system (extension,
input markets, and product markets), as well as key fiscal policies, on returns to oilseeds
research.
This paper is intended to address primarily the first objective of determining the ex-post ROR to
maize, sunflower, and soybean research, but will, to a more limited extent, also discuss the
anticipated returns to ongoing research in these three commodity programs and outputs expected
within the next four years.