Modeling migration flows in the Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam: an augmented gravity approach.

Type Working Paper
Title Modeling migration flows in the Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam: an augmented gravity approach.
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2016
URL http://gfa.hof.uni-frankfurt.de/arno/ArnoXI/Papers/Huy.pdf
Abstract
This article aims at modeling inter-provincial migration flows between provinces of the Mekong River
Delta (MRD) region and 3 major urban cities in Vietnam. The key feature of the model is that it departs
from the time proofed gravity model, which is expected to verify whether hypothesis on determinants of
migration suggested by the literature hold or not in the case of the MRD region. The result of estimations
indicates that migration flows between the MRD provinces and 3 major urban cities vary with the square
root of the product of province populations and the ratio of income at destination over income at source,
but inversely relate with distance. In addition, the forecast shows that the MRD region remains an
important out-flow region with out-flows from provinces increasing by 0.4 million in the next five years,
among Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Dong Thap and An Giang will see the largest increases in out flows.

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