Educational expansion followed by economic decline in Kenya has been associated with a decline in the social return to secondary education, conventionally calculated, from 20% in 1978 to 6% in 1995. Wage benefits from primary school have fallen but returns remain unchanged because of correspondingly falls in costs. Returns to tertiary education have not fallen. The concept of expected returns to education is introduced to allow for effects of education on earnings from self-employment and on the probability of employment. These mirror conventionally calculated returns for men, but are higher for women due to large participation effects of education