Small Area Estimation of Poverty Statistics

Type Working Paper
Title Small Area Estimation of Poverty Statistics
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2009
URL http://dirp4.pids.gov.ph/ris/dps/pidsdps0916.pdf
Abstract
In  response  to  high  demands  for  lower  level  poverty  estimates,  the  National  Statistical  Coordination  Board  releases  provincial  estimates,  in  addition  to  the  national  and  regional,  starting  with  the  1997  FIES.  However,  estimates  of  the  coefficients  of  variation  (CV)  of  several  provincial  estimates  indicate  that  the  resulting  poverty  measures  are  not  reliable.    Making a decision based on unreliable poverty statistics is very risky especially if the decision to be made relates to the welfare of poor families. Such unreliable poverty statistics may also lead to incorrect targeting of the right beneficiaries of the poverty alleviation program. Hence,  this  paper  provides  alternative  ways  of  coming  up  with  sub-national  statistics  (i.e.  provincial  and  municipal/city-level data)  that yield lower CVs  than  those of  the official ones.  This  refers  to  the  small  area  estimation  (SAE)  technique,  a  model-based  approach  to  produce provincial or even municipal-level data. With a good predicting model,  the  SAE  technique has a lot of potential in providing reliable sub-national estimates  for  poverty reduction efforts.

Related studies

»