The goal of this thesis is to explore how different education and fertility scenarios affect long term
population growth and composition in Tanzania. Tanzania is an especially interesting and relevant
case as the country has passed through a phase of high population growth and is currently already
experiencing a slight decline in fertility with an average of 5.4 children per woman today (compared
to 5.7 in 2005). Fertility is still considered a very pressing issue in public policy and lowering it is an
explicit policy goal.
For this purpose micro data from the Demographic and Heath Surveys (DHS) is analyzed to
identify factors determining fertility decisions, including education. In a second step population
projections along cohort lines for different scenarios regarding educational development and future
fertility are carried out.