Developing Forecasting Models for UNRWA Schools in the Gaza Strip

Type Thesis or Dissertation - MBA
Title Developing Forecasting Models for UNRWA Schools in the Gaza Strip
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2010
URL http://library.iugaza.edu.ps/thesis/90167.pdf
Abstract
This study aimed to develop forecasting models for number of schools, pupils, and classrooms of UNRWA in the Gaza Strip, where Gaza Strip has special circumstances, since the people has been living under strict siege for four years. Gaza strip is the most crowded area over the world, where one and a half million people live over 365 square kilometers. In Gaza Strip, there is a crisis over every thing, even; land, water and food. So planning and forecasting are the right approach to face such obstacles and challenges. The main approach for analysis was statistically based methods. ARIMA
(Autoregressive integrated moving average) models were chosen to forecast number of schools, pupils, and classrooms of UNRWA in Gaza Strip. To get more accurate, useful and practical results, Gaza field was divided into six areas. Each area has seven variables, namely, number of schools, classrooms for elementary stage, boy classrooms in preparatory stage, girl classrooms in preparatory stage, pupils in elementary stage, boy pupils in preparatory stage and girl pupils in preparatory stage. Indeed, 42 time series were modeled. For each time series among 42 time series, ARIMA models with different orders, which were tentatively chosen depending on ACF and PACF plot, were applied, then the best fit model which has the best AIC, BIC and accuracy measures values, was chosen. Results indicated that ARIMA models were the most appropriate method to fit the considered data, where the results were accurate and satisfied the required criteria. Modeling by other forecasting methods can be conducted by future researchers in addition to studying the effects of UNRWA annual budget on the growth of number of schools and classrooms.

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