Peace Dividends? Effect of Conflict Reduction on Activity Choices

Type Working Paper
Title Peace Dividends? Effect of Conflict Reduction on Activity Choices
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2010
URL http://www.diw.de/documents/vortragsdokumente/220/diw_01.c.367990.de/v_2010_bozzoli_peace_cprc.pdf
Abstract
Northern Uganda experienced a protracted conflict between the government and rebel groups between 1986 and 2006. Over 90% of the population in the Acholi (and later Lango) region was displaced, and insecurity constrained the number and types of activities that individuals could resort to in order to survive. In this paper, we study the effect of conflict reduction on household activity choices. We argue that there are two ways in which conflict de-escalation eased the constraints on household activity. First, given location (family lives in an Internally Displaced Person -IDP- camp or returned to their place of origin) conflict may affect activity choice. Second, households may choose their location (i.e. leave the camps) and this may also have an impact on activity choice. We separate the effect of IDP-camp residence and the effect of conflict reduction on household activity choice. Because households relocating away from camps may be different from those staying in them, we use a recursive bivariate probit procedure to control for selection on unobservables. Our empirical procedure relies on merging household survey data with a micro-level dataset on conflict "events". This allows us to incorporate conflict in the framework, but also to use a bivariate probit procedure to control for endogeneity (selection of households out from camps). Preliminary results indicate that being a camp-resident has varied effects on economic activities. Households in IDP camps are more likely to cultivate and engage in petty trading, but returnees are in a better position to engage in any activity. Our findings point to the need to emphasize targeting household livelihoods even when they are still in camps rather than wait for complete recovery.

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