Africanization of the World in the Third Milleniun: A Prognosis of Population Dynamics

Type Journal Article - African Journal of Political Science/Revue Africaine de Science Politique
Title Africanization of the World in the Third Milleniun: A Prognosis of Population Dynamics
Author(s)
Volume 6
Issue 1
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2001
Page numbers 59-76
URL http://sanweb.lib.msu.edu/DMC/African Journals/pdfs/political science/volume6n2/ajps006002005.pdf
Abstract
Dreaded doomsday ageing consequences, particularly in European countries and
Japan, a result of past protracted fertility decline, provides a pivotal lesson. Highfertility
Africa is perceived as having a unique historical opportunity, not only to
avoid ageing but as some solution to the ageing world also.This article reviews the
consequences of ageing in Europe: a predicament, particularly with the impossibility
oflow-fertility reversal. In contrast, Africa is argued as continuing with a young age
structure, even with fertility conservatively put at replacement as early as 2035 to
reflect relevant young generations' lower desires. With Europe allowed replacement
fertility in the long-run, population projections are made. Resulting world regions'
population shares show Africa's increasing, with AIDS argued as insignificant;
similarly, pointing to population growth as never being deleterious. Attention,
however, is directed to trends in Africa's young age structure, hence her historical
unique opportunity: avoiding ageing and possiblly lending its labour force to
ageing Europe. Challenges of maintaining Africa's fertility above replacement,
and labour export acceptance to Europe, are realized, but argued as positively
surmountable.

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