China’s economic growth 1978-2025: what we know today about China’s economic growth tomorrow

Type Journal Article - World Development
Title China’s economic growth 1978-2025: what we know today about China’s economic growth tomorrow
Author(s)
Volume 36
Issue 10
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2008
Page numbers 1665-1691
URL http://repository.ust.hk/ir/bitstream/1783.1-2474/1/HolzChinaGrowth2Nov05web.pdf
Abstract
This paper examines China’s future growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth using two approaches. It first asks in how far China’s recent economic development matches standard growth patterns identified in development economics and trade theory. Second, GDP is decomposed into income components, which in turn are explained, for the reform period, by the quantity and quality of labor; future GDP can then be re-composed from future labor data available today. Overall, China’s economic growth is likely to continue at current rates through 2015 before it gradually slows. Such a growth has numerous implications.

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