Population aging is becoming a feature of populations worldwide as fertility rate
declines and life expectancy increases in the developing world. By the year 2020, the
population aged 60 years and above will account for 13.1 percent of the world’s total
population. But a major feature in world aging is that “aging speed is much faster in developing
countries compared with the earlier experience of more developed countries”
(UNFPA, 1998a: 5). In less developed regions, the proportion of aging population aged 60
and over will increase from 8 percent in its total population in 1999 to 21 percent in 2050
(UN Population Division, 1999).
China as a developing country with the largest population is both following this
trend and being identified as an aged country. Its aging speed is the fastest in human history
(Du, 1988:183; Wu and Du, 1996:25). By the year 2000, the proportion of people
aged 60 years and above in China will represent 10 percent of its total population and those
aged 65 year and above will account for 7 percent of the total. By the year 2050, China will
have 439 million people aged 60 years and over; they will constitute 23 percent of the total
population (UN Population Division, 1999).
Compared with developed countries, China’s aging is both much faster and based
on a low per capita income; its size is much larger than any other country. Another distinct
characteristic is that most of the elderly in China live in the rural areas.
In 1997, the population aged 60 years and above in the rural areas of China was 78
million, representing 70.2 percent of the total elderly population (SSB, 1998: 448). They
have little access to the formal pension system and publicly funded medical care and rely
on family support. What is going on in rural old-age support? Is the family enough to support
old-age security in rural China? These questions need to be discussed in order to cope
with current issues of the rural old-age support and make early planning to avert the crisis
that the dramatic drop of fertility (and other factors) would bring about.