|Title||Accounting for China’s Long-term Growth: How Important is Demographic Change?|
This paper studies factors that account for China’s growth from 1957 to 2007.
We particularly aim to explore the role of demographic changes. A general equilibrium
overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility and factor accumulations
is employed. The main findings are (1) in the pre-reform period (1957-
1982), the demographic change was the main engine of China’s per capita output
growth (accounting for around 71% of the simulated growth); technological
progress and efficiency improvement alone could not sustain a positive growth;
(2) in the post-reform period (1982-2007), technological progress and efficiency
improvement played an important role for China’s growth (around 68% of the
growth); the effects of the demographic change was minor.
|»||China - National Population Census 1964|
|»||China - National Population Census 1982|