The problem
Changes in land use hold major implications for natural resources, productivity and rural living
conditions. The changes in the complex social and natural system are often caused by
activities of individuals. These changes in land use are made to meet locally defined needs.
All these local activities can have regional or global impact because of their influence on
biodiversity, water and radiation budgets, trace gas emission and other processes (Turner II
et al. 1990; Riebsame et al. 1994). On a local scale, changes in land use directly influence
our lives through our perception of the landscape and living environment (Palang et al. 2000).
The CLUE model
To preserve or create a healthy living environment careful land use planning is more and
more important. Models of land use change can be very useful for planning, they can help to
understand the complex system of socio-economic and biophysical factors. They also can
help to understand the causes and the consequences of changes in land use.
Another very useful characteristic of models is the ability of simulating possible future
developments in the land use system. These simulations expose unwanted developments in
the land use system enabling to anticipate on these developments through land use planning.
The simulation of future changes in land use can also be used for predicting the effects of
changes in land use.
To understand and predict the impact of biophysical and socio-economical forces that drive
land use change, an empirical multi-scale land use change model was developed. The CLUE
(the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model simulates recent and future changes in
land use patterns. CLUE is capable of identifying areas that have high probabilities for future
changes in land use, so called ‘hot-spots’ of land use change. The identification of ‘hot-spots’
is important in focussing research and land use planning.