Predicting interregional migration in the Philippines: a search for a model.

Type Working Paper
Title Predicting interregional migration in the Philippines: a search for a model.
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 1976
URL http://www.popline.org/node/447047
Abstract
This document provided an outline of a study which 1) examined migration patterns in the Philippines from 1960-1970 using data from the 1970 census and 3) used the 1960-1970 patterns to predict migration rates for the 1970-1980 period. During the period 1960-1970, younger aged migrants tended to come from families with above average incomes and were only slightly deterred from moving to areas with high unemployment and high population density. Older migrants tended to move to nearby areas and older males tended to avoid moving to areas with high population density. Predictions for 1970-1980 were 1) the in-migration rate will decrease in metropolitan Manila, stay the same in Mindanao, and increase in other areas; 2) the out-migration rate will increase considerably in Bicol, central Visayas, and metropolitan Manila, increase slightly in central Luzon, southern Tagalog, western Visayas, and northern Mindanao, remain the same in western Mindanao and southern Mindanao, and decrease somewhat in Illocos, Cagayan Valley, and eastern Visayas; 3) the direction of migration flow will remain the same as in 1960-1970 but the magnitude of net migration rates will change; 4) metropolitan Manila, central Luzon, central Visayas, western Visayas, Bicol, and Illocos will have high population densities. Policy implications of the study were 1) efforts should be made to develop the low density areas of eastern Visayas, southern Tagalog, Cagayan Valley, and Mindanao since these areas could absorb the excess populations found in other regions; 2) interregional migration could be curbed by decreasing reginonal income differentials; and 3) migration to Manila, where unemployment rates are high, could be discouraged by developing other regions of the country which have low densities. - See more at: http://www.popline.org/node/447047#sthash.SfdFEEjl.dpuf

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