Type | Journal Article - Pakistan Journal of Statistics |

Title | Projecting the population age distribution of Pakistan using Markova chain. |

Author(s) | |

Volume | 31 |

Issue | 2 |

Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2015 |

URL | http://www.pakjs.com/journals/31(2)/31(2)5.pdf |

Abstract | Modeling the drastic change in population during this modern era has become the major interesting area among the demographers of the world, particularly of the developing countries. Usually, the exponential and time series models are exercised for overall population projection. These models seem lacking in projecting the population age distribution. The population age distribution projection has its own practical importance for several reasons in policy making. This article investigates the projection of population age distribution of Pakistan as well as the disparity index of the projected and census of populations. A Markov Chain (MC) model has been developed to project the population of different age groups and found to be parsimonious. The population age distribution is projected up to 2021 using 1972 and 1981 census populations to calculate the probabilities of survival. The Gini coefficients and Lorenz curve are also estimated to examine the disparity of projected and census populations. The findings demonstrated the mild level of disparity within the population census1972; 1981; 1998. The disparity measures of projected population age distribution for the year 2011 and 2021 are approximately same as that of 1998 population census. The results indicated that the population age distribution pattern would not be changed drastically if the social behavior of the society continues similar to the patterns reflected by the year 1998. However, the projection also anticipated about the decrease in 0-4 age group and increase in ageing population. |

» | Pakistan - Population Census 1972 |