Romania is facing a rapid demographic ageing, mainly due to negative natural increase
after the dissolution of the former regime. The demographic behaviour was associated
with birth postponement, a decreasing total fertility rate (1.3 at present), emigration
(mainly in the early ’90s). In 2000, the elderly exceeded the young population in number
and percent.
The demographic model tends to cope with the model of the European developed
countries, but the race is regulated by the dynamics and effectiveness of the economic
and social reforms.
Working age population will significantly decrease after 2005. It will be associated with
major imbalances by age groups, which may equally cause demographic, economic and
social problems. The economic dependence ratio is worsening. Of the inactive people, 40
percent are pensioners and 29.4 are pupils/students. Labour migration potential is high,
especially among upper secondary and university graduates. On long term Romania may
turn into an immigration country with an important contingent of natives working abroad.