Advisable age at first marriage and birth interval to achieve a lower TFR: a case study of Indonesia

Type Thesis or Dissertation - Master Thesis
Title Advisable age at first marriage and birth interval to achieve a lower TFR: a case study of Indonesia
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2009
URL Thesis.pdf
In 2015, due to TFR stagnancy at 2.6 per woman, Indonesia will face total population of 255 million people compared to 237 million people predicted before. The deviation on total population rises up concerns on possible economic and social problems in the future. Therefore, there is a need to lower the fertility into Net Replacement Rate or TFR of 2.1 per women.
To answer this problem, this research tried to seek variables that could be used to control TFR. Based on Davis and Blake concepts of proximate determinants of fertility and Bongaarts and Potter analysis on proximate determinants, this research analyze the possibility to utilize socioeconomic variables to lower the TFR. The socioeconomic variables are wealth index, level of education, urban-rural residence, child mortality, contraceptive knowledge, and working status. It is expected that by managing socioeconomic variables, the age at first marriage rises and the birth interval could be shortened, therefore TFR of 2.1 could be achieved.
Data from Indonesia Demographic Health Survey (IDHS) 2007 is used. Based on Partial Least Square (PLS) regression result, this research suggest that to achieve TFR of 2.1, the age at first marriage should be increased from national current age at first marriage of 19.8 years old to 23.7 years old, whereas the birth interval is preferably to be increased from current national birth interval of 54.6 months to 60 months. To ensure fulfilment of the age at first marriage and birth interval, four variable of socioeconomic could be utilized. These are effort to increase contraceptive knowledge, reduce child mortality, open more opportunity for women to work, and encourage women to attain higher education.

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