Migration and Climate Change in Rural Africa

Type Journal Article - CESifo Working Paper
Title Migration and Climate Change in Rural Africa
Author(s)
Issue 5224
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2015
URL http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/108771/1/cesifo_wp5224.pdf
Abstract
We analyse whether migration is an adaptation that households employ to cope with climate in
Ghana and Nigeria. If migration is part of the present adaptation portfolio of households in
developing countries, it is reasonable to expect that it will also be an adaptation to future climate
change. It is important to stress that we are interested in long-term climatic conditions rather
than in short-term weather fluctuations. The data to test these predictions are drawn from two
different household surveys: the Nigeria General Household Survey and the Ghana Living
Standard Survey. We find a hill-shaped relationship between temperature in the dry season and
the propensity to migrate in households that operate farms. We also find a significant hill-shaped
relationship between precipitations in the wet seasons and the propensity to migrate in farm
households. Climate has instead no significant impact on the propensity to migrate in non-farm
households. Climate change scenarios generated by General Circulation model reveal that,
ceteris paribus, migration may decline in Ghana and in Nigeria.

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