Alternative South African mid-year estimates, 2013

Type Working Paper - Cape Town: University of Cape Town
Title Alternative South African mid-year estimates, 2013
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2013
The 2013 series of mid-year estimates (OffMYE) of the population of South Africa released by
Stats SA in May 2013 have, as is shown in the figure below, an age-distribution that is very
different from that of the 2011 Census, particularly for ages under 40. Despite Stats SA’s
assurances that “neither source is more right than the other; (because) they serve different
purposes” there is concern in many quarters about the consequences of estimating and planning
on the basis of an incorrect age distribution. Thus it was decided to produce an alternative set of
mid-year estimates (AltMYE) that are similar in magnitude to the official mid-year estimates but
maintain an age distribution that is consistent with that of the 2011 Census to allow users to
check if the alternative age distribution has a significant impact on their estimates or
interpretation of trends over time.

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