Besides the major findings of the national population and housing results from Census 2011
which were published in 2012, a detailed analysis of the population age-sex structure was
undertaken to provide an insight of the demographic transition over time.
While the population aged 15–64 increased steadily from 1996–2011, the child population (0–
14) shows a decreasing trend across the years. South Africa has an intermediary population,
with the median age ranking between 22 and 25. The white population group had the median
ages of over 30 in all the three years under consideration; and this population group appears to
be older than all other population groups. The overall sex ratio is still in favour of females, it
increased from 92,7 in 1996 to 94,8 in 2011. The highest increase of sex ratio is more
pronounced in the Indian/Asian population group. The burden of children and elderly on those
who are economically productive declined over time, however, the white population group
dependency ratio indicates a stable pattern from 1996 to 2011.
Despite the attempts made to explain the population age-structure of the 2011 Census,
empirical investigation still needs to be done to establish the declining child population aged
within the 5–14 age group that was observed in 2011. Nonetheless, analysis of past mortality
levels and trends, indicate that the marked increase in infant and child mortality, as well as the
decrease in the life expectancy that were observed between 1998 and 2006 might be indicative
of a decrease of this cohort. The intensive government programmes which appeared to have
reduced child mortality rates and thus increased life expectancy, with the improved undercount
rate of children aged 0–4 from 2001 to 2011 could be attributed to a broader base of the 2011
population structure.
Amongst the three processes of population change, fertility seems to have been the main
contributing factor to the change in population age-sex structure over time. The observed fertility
decline that occurred more than four decades ago, resulted in the shift from child population to
youth population aged 20–29. This youth bulge increased markedly from 1996 to 2011, thus
creating a demographic dividend. The question that remained unanswered is whether the
country could benefit from this window of opportunity. Empirical findings with regard to youth
unemployment rates, uncertainties about quality of education and the scourge of HIV/AIDS
among the young population might prohibit the country from benefiting from this demographic
dividend