Risk assessment to demonstrate freedom of highly pathogenic avian influenza (hpai) in Timor Leste

Type Thesis or Dissertation - Doctor of Philosophy
Title Risk assessment to demonstrate freedom of highly pathogenic avian influenza (hpai) in Timor Leste
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2011
URL https://core.ac.uk/download/files/343/11235404.pdf
Abstract
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus was the cause of a pandemic of
avian influenza which affected poultry from most parts of the world. In contrast to
most Southeast Asian countries where HPAI is endemic, Timor Leste is currently
free from HPAI. The current study was designed to collect data to confirm that
Timor Leste is actually free from HPAI and to identify potential risk factors that
might be involved in the introduction of HPAI into the country. Data to confirm
freedom were collected from various sources, and included biological samples for
HPAI testing from regions with a high risk of infection.
The analysis of existing animal health data (2004 to 2006) found that, with the
exception of a survey in June 2004, there was no evidence of HPAI being present in
Timor Leste. In the survey of June 2004 low titres were found indicating previous
exposure to HPAI virus (H5 and H7). As only two serological positive samples were
found and there were no reports of outbreaks of clinical disease typical of HPAI, it is
likely that the results were false positives.
As no surveys had been undertaken in Timor Leste since March 2006, as part of the
current study, targeted surveillance was conducted in July 2009. As all samples were
negative the findings support the belief that Timor Leste was free from HPAI at the
time of sample collection.
Although the country may currently be free from HPAI, the country is at risk of
having an incursion of HPAI through certain high risk practices. These include the
smuggling of live chickens, the lack of awareness of HPAI by farmers, a lack of iii
adoption of biosecurity measures by households owning poultry and the extensive
poultry management system adopted.
A risk assessment that was conducted as part of this study demonstrated that the
probability of entry of infection through a smuggled chicken was high. The most
important factors that would contribute to the entry of HPAI included: an increased
number of chickens smuggled; increased number of smugglers; and the prevalence
of AI in Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT). On the other hand the risk decreased by:
strengthening the detection, confiscation, and submission of smuggled birds by the
Border Police Units (BPU) and by increasing the destruction of smuggled poultry by
quarantine staff.
Although there were many putative risk factors identified for HPAI, it was
confirmed that Timor Leste was free from HPAI, however the control measures to
prevent the introduction of HPAI into the country should be reinforced and target the
most influential factors identified in this project.

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