During the first few years of the Islamic Revolution Iranian fertility was on
the rise, in part because of the revolutionary government’s pro-natal policies. In
a policy reversal, in 1989 the government launched an ambitious and innovative
family planning program specifically aimed at rural families. By 2005, the
program had covered more than 90 percent of the rural population and the
average number of births per rural woman had declined to near replacement
level from about 8 birth in the mid 1980s. In this paper we ask to what extent
this decline was the result of the family planning program. We use the timing
of establishment of rural health houses to identify the effect of the program
on change in village-level fertility. Our results indicate only a moderate effect
of the program on rural fertility. Fertility decline in villages that received
health services earlier was only slightly greater than those that received it later.
Our regression results indicate that other factors, such as initial literacy and
availability of schools may have played a larger role in fertility decline than
family planning.