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Citation Information

Type Report
Title Options for agricultural growth for poverty reduction in Nigeria
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2009
URL https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Manson_Nwafor/publication/267955050_Options_for_Agricultural_Gr​owth_for_Poverty_Reduction_in_Nigeria/links/56197a5408ae044edbaf8e23.pdf
This study analyzes growth options in agricultural sub-sectors to accelerate overall economic
growth and reduce poverty in Nigeria in the next nine years (2009-17) using an economy-wide,
dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. The model results show that if the
individual agricultural subsectors’ growth targets set by the Nigerian government can be
achieved, the country will have 9.5 percent of agricultural annual growth and 8.0 percent of GDP
growth in the next 10 years. The national poverty rate will fall to 30.8 percent by 2017, more
than halving 1996’s poverty rate of 65.6 percent, thereby accomplishing the objective for
MDG1. The report emphasizes that in designing an agricultural strategy and in prioritizing
growth, it is important to consider the following four factors at the subsector level: (i) the size of
a subsector in the economy, (ii) growth multiplier effect through linkages of a subsector with the
rest of the economy, (iii) poverty reduction – growth elasticity effect through growth primarily led
by a subsector, and (iv) market opportunities and price effect for individual agricultural products.

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