The Population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past
two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of
urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to
model urban-rural population in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is
calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China. Two important components of
urban population growth - rural to urban migration and transition - are considered. In previous
research, rural to urban population transition was ignored and thus urbanization levels may be
significantly underprojected. An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to
urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established in
this research. These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-
2087 under various fertility rate assumptions.