Few issues in the study of Chinese socio-economic development
over the past several years have generated as much
public concern and a sense of urgency as surplus rural
labourers and consequent large-scale internal migration in
China. The issue of surplus rural labourers in China is of course
not new. Since at least the 19th century, Chinese rulers have
been concerned about the lack of arable land and the flow of
surplus rural labourers. China accounts for 22 per cent of the
world’s population, but has only 7 per cent of the world’s
arable land. What is new, however, is the fact that those
surplus farmers are now free to move and are increasingly
choosing to move to urban areas, owing to the rapid
economic growth in Chinese cities during the past decade.
Migration in China
18
Like human migration elsewhere, China’s ongoing internal
migration is both a cause and consequence of socio-economic
change.1 While no one seems to doubt the magnitude of the
impact of migrant workers on the country, students of China
differ profoundly in terms of the politico-economic implications
of this phenomenon. Jack Goldstone, a sociologist from the
University of California at Davis, argues that China’s surplus
rural labourers and internal migration pose a major threat to
the political stability and economic growth of the country. As
the agricultural economy becomes virtually incapable of
providing more employment and the industrial growth is not
rapid enough to absorb the rural surplus, China is expected to
have a ‘terminal crisis’ within the next ten to fifteen years.2
Masses of unemployed peasants are likely to be the catalysts
if China descends into chaos.