THE NUMBER OF oldest old persons in China, defined here as aged 80 and
older, is calculated by the United Nations to climb from about 11.5 million
in the year 2000 to 27 million in 2020, 39 million in 2030, 64 million in
2040, and 99 million in 2050.1 Under the UN’s medium fertility assumption,2
the percent aged 65 and older is expected to increase from 6.9 in
2000 to 15.7 in 2030 and 22.7 in 2050, while the share of the oldest old
which in 2000 is 13 percent of the elderly population will be some 30 percent
in 2050. The main reason the number of oldest old will climb so quickly
after 2030 is that China’s “baby boomers,” who were born in the 1950s and
1960s, will fall into the category of “oldest old” at that time.
During 2000–50 the population of the oldest old will grow faster than
any other age group in China. This phenomenon is not limited to China.
The average annual rates of increase of oldest old persons between 2000
and 2050 are expected to be around 4.3 percent in China, India, and Mexico
and 2.2–2.8 percent in Canada, Japan, the United States, Germany, and
France (UN 2001b). The rate of increase of the Chinese oldest old subpopulation
is much faster (4.4 percent vs. 2.7 percent) than that of the entire
elderly population aged 65 and older