This paper estimates the impact of demographic and educational changes on the earnings and returns to
schooling of workers in Brazil and Mexico. Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational and
economic variations within each country over time, using Censuses microdata from Brazil and Mexico. Results
suggest that demographic and educational transitions generate impact on earnings and on returns to education.
The proportion of people in age-education groups tends to have a negative impact on earnings. These impacts are
more detrimental among age-education groups with higher education, but they are having less of a negative
effect over time. We also find that the concentration of skilled labor has positive impacts on the rates of returns
to education and that they are greater than those observed in more developed countries. Moreover, in Brazil and
Mexico, these effects are observed throughout the income distribution, contrary to what is observed in studies for
the United States.