Recent political trends in Latin America have led to the election of a number of leftist
presidents throughout the region. Some, such as Venezuela?s Hugo Chávez and
Ecuador?s Rafael Correa, profess goals centered to varying degrees in socialism and
independence from United States influence. Historically speaking, the United States has
never been hesitant to aggressively ensure that Latin American political developments
are favorable to US interests. This thesis seeks to predict how US foreign policy toward
Latin America will likely change within the next decade or so in response to the region?s
political developments. To do so, the nature and background of those developments
must be understood; Ecuador and Venezuela are utilized as in-depth case studies for this
purpose, and illustrate the heterogeneity within Latin America?s move to the left. Bueno
de Mesquita?s predictive model is then used to examine the interaction between each of
the case studies and the US on two specific issues: the growth of Iranian influence in
Latin America and the future of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA).