An Assesment of Rainfall and Temperature Variations in Selected Stations in Parts of Northern Nigeria

Type Thesis or Dissertation - Doctor of Philosophy
Title An Assesment of Rainfall and Temperature Variations in Selected Stations in Parts of Northern Nigeria
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2012
URL Assesment of the Rainfall.pdf
The aim of the study is the assessment of rainfall and temperature variations in parts of
Northern Nigeria. To achieve the aim, the study set out the following objectives (i) to
determine variations in rainfall characteristics in terms of number of rain days, extreme
rainfall amounts, variability and ranges; (ii) to determine variations in maximum, minimum
and mean temperature patterns and using the time series to determine any trend in the change,
(upward or downward) (iii) to predict the values for the periods: 2007-2030, which was also
subjected to the time series analysis; (iv) to determine the relationship between rainfall and
temperature, and (v) to account for the causes of temperature and rainfall variability in the
study area. The data for the study which were collected from the Nigerian Meteorological
Agency for eleven (11) stations in parts of Northern Nigeria for a period of thirty six (36)
years include, those of rainfall amounts, number of rain days, maximum temperature, and
minimum temperature. Simple statistical measures of mean, median, maximum, minimum,
standard deviation, variance, skewness, kurtosis and coefficient of variability were used for
discerning the patterns and distribution of the climatic elements considered in the study. Time
series analysis were carried out to determine the trends and predict future values of the
variables. The results achieved indicate that: the region could be divided into two periods on
the basis of years with lower temperatures and rainfall (1970s and 1980s) and periods with
higher temperatures and rainfall (1990s and 2000s). During the predicted period, 2007-2030,
rainfall declines until 2019 and from 2020, rainfall begins to increase until 2030, mean annual
number of rain days decrease from 6.5 days per month in 2007 to 5.2 days per month in 2030,
mean annual maximum temperature and mean annual minimum temperature continue to
increase from 34.50C in 2007 to 36.60C in 2030 and 21.10C in 2007 to 21.50C in 2030
respectively. The southern part of the region has higher rainfall and lower temperatures
compared to the northern parts. Temperatures vary very slightly in the region; none of the
elements have departed significantly from the normal. There is a general increase in rainfall in
the forecast period and a corresponding decrease in the number of rain days. There is also a
general increase in mean annual temperature and annual minimum temperature. The work
recommends that more of this type of studies be carried out. The result show that no signal
has really been detected. We should devote more attention to regional studies of current
climatic behaviours in various regions of Nigeria.

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