Trends in inclusive growth in Egypt 1991-2011

Type Working Paper
Title Trends in inclusive growth in Egypt 1991-2011
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2014
Page numbers 1-28
In 1991 Egypt adopted a bold economic reform and stabilization program to address a problematic social and economic situation which manifested itself in rising structural unemployment, mounting external debt, double digit inflation and increasingly negative fiscal and external deficits. Stabilization and liberalization have been achieved and macroeconomic indicators have improved in the nineties. However, a number of negative aspects have persisted namely, social injustice, slow growth of GDP, escalating unemployment and rising poverty. The growth which took place in the first decade of the twenty first century lacked equity. This growth could be described as non-inclusive. It is believed that these negative factors were the main economic causes of the 2011 revolution known as the Arab Spring. The relevant indicators of inclusive growth are productive employment, economic infrastructure, poverty, equity, human ability and social protection. The paper attempts to assess trends in inclusive growth by constructing a country level composite index. The index is constructed to take into consideration the above mentioned relevant growth determinants. The composite index is constructed on a weighted average score of 0–10, based on country performance on each of the previously mentioned components. Each of which is, in turn, a weighted average of its subcomponents. The index is computed using Egyptian data between 1991 and 2011 relying on the World Development Indicators database. The main aim of this paper is to help Egypt decision makers to assess its progress in achieving inclusive growth. The composite index is further used to suggest policies to support Egypt’s inclusive growth objectives. We further attempt to compare the country’s performance to that of several Asian countries. The preliminary results show that Egypt progressed reasonably on most dimension of inclusive growth over the years. It performed satisfactorily on most of the indicators economic growth, generating productive employment, poverty and inequality, on improving access to education and health, and on access to water and sanitation. The performance was more oscillating in fields as access to economic infrastructure and social protection where it varied between the years from unsatisfactory to a superior progress.

Related studies