Using election data on the 2006 Presidential poll following re-introduction of multi-party
system and various surveys’ data compiled around 2006, this study explored characteristics
that could have guaranteed election victory to the incumbent. The study considered scores
for Constituency ratings – derived or otherwise - on income and poverty levels,
participation, incumbency, literacy levels, party dominance or allegiance of the
Constituency to a party, effect of regional location and the nature of the Constituency. The
study population comprised 214 Parliamentary Constituencies covering the whole of
Uganda.
A systematic approach utilising Hosmer-Lemeshow logistic regression technique for
analysis of dichotomous outcomes was used. On analyzing the variables, all other
quantitative predictors, except participation of the Constituency voters, average monthly per
Capita incomes of voters and dominance by a political party, were eliminated. These were
found to be statistically reliable for the restricted model in correctly predicting 70.56% of
the data.
The policy implications for multiparty systems suggest that political and coalition actors
could optimise their decisions or vote chances by articulating alternative policy matters in
their campaign strategies. Unobservable income and other forms of inducements or coercion
on which data are seldom collected or lacking may influence polls’ outcomes. Future studies
could focus on the influence of these factors on election results. Technically, it remains
incumbent upon the Electoral Commission and government to be held accountable for the
entire electoral environment during the poll’s cycle.