This report focuses on the nexus between security and environmental concerns in Pakistan that
have the potential to affect American security and foreign policy interests. Environmental
concerns include, but are not limited to, water and food scarcity, natural disasters, and the effects
of climate change. Environmental stresses, when combined with the other socio-economic and
political stresses on Pakistan, have the potential to further weaken an already weak Pakistani
state. Such a scenario would make it more difficult to achieve the U.S. goal of neutralizing antiWestern
terrorists in Pakistan. Some analysts argue that disagreements over water could also
exacerbate existing tensions between India and Pakistan. Given the importance of this region to
U.S. interests for many reasons, the report identifies an issue that may be of increasing concern
for Congress in the years ahead.
The report examines the potentially destabilizing effect that, when combined with Pakistan’s
demographic trends and limited economic development, water scarcity, limited arable land, and
food security may have on an already radicalized internal and destabilized international politicalsecurity
environment. The report considers the especially important hypothesis that the
combination of these factors could contribute to Pakistan’s decline as a fully functioning state,
creating new, or expanding existing, largely ungoverned areas. The creation, or expansion, of
ungoverned areas, or areas of limited control by the government of Pakistan, is viewed as not in
U.S. strategic interests given the recent history of such areas being used by the Taliban, Al Qaeda,
and other terrorist groups as a base for operations against U.S. interests in the region. In this
sense, environmental stress is viewed as a potential “threat multiplier” to existing sources of
conflict.
Environmental factors could also expand the ranks of the dispossessed in Pakistan, which could
lead to greater recruitment for radical Islamist groups operating in Pakistan or Afghanistan.
Larger numbers of dispossessed people in Pakistan could also destabilize the current political
regime. This could add pressure on the Pakistani political system and possibly add impetus to a
return to military rule or a more bellicose posture towards India. This issue has added significant
importance to regional security and American interests in Afghanistan.