BACKGROUND: The lack of applicable populationbased
methods to measure tuberculosis (TB) incidence
rates directly at country level emphasises the global need
to generate robust TB surveillance data to ascertain
trends in disease burden and to assess the performance
of TB control programmes in the context of the United
Nations Millenium Development Goals and World
Health Organization targets for TB control.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of TB cases (all
forms) and sputum smear-positive disease, and the level
of under-reporting of TB in Yemen in 2010.
METHODS: Record-linkage and three-source capturerecapture
analysis of data collected through active prospective
longitudinal surveillance within the public and
private non-National Tuberculosis Programme sector in
twelve Yemeni governorates, selected by stratified cluster
random sampling.
RESULTS: For all TB cases, the estimated ratio of notified
to incident cases and completeness of case ascertainment
after record linkage, i.e., the ratio of detected
to incident cases, was respectively 71% (95%CI 64 –80)
and 75% (95%CI 68–85). For sputum smear-positive TB
cases, these ratios were respectively 67% (95%CI 58–
75) and 76% (95%CI 66–84).
CONCLUSION: We estimate that there were 13 082
(95%CI 11 610–14 513) TB cases in Yemen in 2010.
Under-reporting of TB in Yemen is estimated at 29%
(95%CI 20–36).