The Onset of Fertility Transition in Zimbabwe: a Re-Analysis of Census and Survey Data Using Robust Demographic Techniques

Type Journal Article - African Population Studies
Title The Onset of Fertility Transition in Zimbabwe: a Re-Analysis of Census and Survey Data Using Robust Demographic Techniques
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2002
URL https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/1394/1/ep02001.pdf
Abstract
The present study is designed to resolve the controversy arising from fertility decline in Zimbabwe by conducting a comprehensive analysis of all the fertility data available from national censuses and surveys. This includes the first in-depth analysis of the 1994 Demographic and Health Survey data and the first combined analysis of all inquiries since 1969. As well as examining summary measures of total fertility, the study presents estimates of parity progression for each cohort interviewed in the two DHS surveys using the method proposed by Brass and Juarez to adjust for truncation bias. In addition, we check our fertility estimates against the Census enumerations by carrying out an intercensal population projection based on them. The results suggest that fertility fell slightly during the Civil War of the 1970s but may have risen briefly immediately after Independence. A sustained fertility decline then began in the mid-1980s and continued into the 1990s. We agree with the view that the two DHS surveys in Zimbabwe underestimate current fertility. This same view is corroborated by earlier enquiries. Thus, adjustment of the data leaves unaltered the conclusion that total period fertility has fallen by about a third. The total fertility rate in 1994 in Zimbabwe was about 4.7 children per woman. What is it now?

Related studies

»
»