Absent actual panel household survey data, this paper constructs,
for the first time, synthetic panel data for more
than 20 countries accounting for two-thirds of the population
in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this process, the analysis
employs repeated cross sections that span, on average, a
six-year period for each country. The analysis suggests that
all these countries as a whole have had pro-poor growth.
One-third of the poor population escaped poverty during
the studied period, which is larger than the proportion of
the population that fell into poverty in the same period.
The region also saw a 9 percent reduction in poverty
and a 28 percent increase in the size of the middle class.
However, chronic poverty remains high, and a considerable
proportion of the population is vulnerable to falling
into poverty. There is some limited evidence that most
resource-rich and middle-income countries have more
upward mobility than downward mobility. Post-secondary
education is especially strongly associated with higher
upward mobility and less downward mobility, which holds
to some extent for female-headed and urban households.