Zambia has experienced very good GDP growth rates in the last decade, above the
SSA average. Growth remains largely based on copper exports, and on the high
copper price that prevailed until 2013. The country has not yet achieved structural
transformation of its domestic economy, in particular with regard to its ambition for
broader based industrialisation. There are important changes in demand with
urbanisation and increasing household incomes, in Zambia as well as in the
neighbouring DRC. A review of trade patterns and the sectoral performance in Zambia
assesses the size and direction of different effects on patterns of industrial
development. It particularly considers the impact on agro-processing and engineering
sectors and the key factors in development of these activities. The paper considers
concerns relating to competition, investment along the value chain, and the ability to
build capabilities based on local demand and export opportunities in regional markets,
especially in South Africa and via regional supermarket chains. Based on this analysis
the paper asks what policies are required to support broad-based industrialisation and
critically assesses the existing framework and its implementation in this light. It
concludes by considering the potential for collaboration in industrial policy across
countries.