This study considers the prospects for achieving replacement-level fertility in Egypt in the
near future. Replacement-level fertility, the fertility rate consistent with a population growth
rate of zero (i.e., a stationary population), can be regarded as 2.1 births per woman.
A transition from Egypt’s current fertility rate of 3.2 births per woman to the replacement
level will require reductions in both wanted and unwanted fertility. For the country as a
whole, and for those segments of the population with relatively low fertility at present (urban
areas, educated women, wealthier households), the required reductions in wanted and
unwanted fertility are roughly equal. In those segments of the population where fertility is
currently relatively high (rural areas, less educated women, poorer households), the reduction
in wanted fertility will need to be about twice as large as the reduction in unwanted fertility.
Neither reduction in wanted fertility nor reduction in unwanted fertility alone will be
sufficient; reductions in both are required. A second, equally important point is that
replacement-level fertility will be difficult to achieve unless most Egyptians accept two
children as their childbearing goal.

Data collected for the Slow Fertility Transition project reveals that widespread acceptance of
a two-child norm is lacking at present. Among currently married women of all ages, slightly
less than one-half (46 percent) express a desire for two or fewer births. Even among married
women under age 30, the fraction is not far above one-half (57 percent). Of particular
relevance for the future, among young, never-married women and men, the percentage
wanting two or fewer births is 61 percent and 53 percent, respectively. In other words, among
younger adults who are in the early stages of their reproductive lives or are about to begin
childbearing, a substantial fraction still considers three or more children to be desirable.
This lack of widespread acceptance of a two-child norm is the most notable obstacle to the
achievement of replacement-level fertility. Other obstacles revealed by this study include the
following:
• Few women perceive much gain from having a large number of children and most
acknowledge the advantages of having just two children. Nevertheless, a substantial
fraction desires three or more children. Apparently “intellectual assent” to the benefits of
a small family is not, in itself, sufficient to lower fertility.
• Attachment to stated fertility goals appears to be weak. For example, among women who
express a desire for two children, about two-thirds say it would matter “not at all” or “a
little” if they had a third child.
• Most Egyptians wish to have both a son and a daughter. This sex preference on balance
works against replacement-level fertility, because one-half of the couples with two
children will lack either a son or a daughter.
• Women who are more stressed financially and women who are more anxious about their
own or their children’s future economic prospects are more likely to want two or fewer
children. By implication, improved economic conditions in Egypt might actually have a
pronatalist effect.
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• Unwanted fertility remains relatively high. About one-quarter of recent births and
pregnancies are unwanted, according to prospective estimates provided by the Slow
Fertility Transition project.
• Negative perceptions of contraception persist, in particular perceptions that the most
common methods cause negative health side effects. These perceptions serve as a
disincentive to the adoption of contraception and, more importantly, to effective and
continuous use of contraception.
The above findings highlight the need for national polices that aim at reducing both wanted
and unwanted fertility. More specific policy recommendations include:
• Policies and programs that persuade couples of the desirability of a two child family,
regardless of their sex, should be developed and strengthened;
• Improving contraceptive continuation through adequate counseling and effective
management of side-effects;
• Policies to encourage girls’ education and employment;
• Promoting more egalitarian gender attitudes, especially among younger men and women.