Understanding the spatial probability of fire and how urban development may alter natural
patterns is particularly important in areas where alternate ecosystem states occur at fine
spatial scales. The Cape Peninsula, South Africa, is a one such region where fire-sensitive
forest patches occur interspersed in a sea of fire-dependent fynbos. Fire is believed to be an
important determinate of forest distribution, with absence or occurrence of fires potentially
allowing patch contraction and expansion. In this thesis I use a series of computer models to
determine the extent to which anthropogenic development and land transformation have
altered the spatial variation in fire likelihood, or the ‘burn probability’, and its consequence
for the distribution of forest on the Cape Peninsula.
The two multi-model, fire behaviour simulation systems I use are FlamMap and FARSITE.
FARSITE is a deterministic simulation package used globally for discrete event simulation. In
an effort to assess the viability of using the FARSITE model for fire prediction in fynbos and
the determinants of model accuracy, I predicted fire area for a historical fire on the Cape
Peninsula using a variety of fuel models and wind conditions. Following this validation,
FlamMap was used to simulate the burn probability of the Cape Peninsula under natural
conditions – no urban development present – and transformed conditions – where urban
areas are mapped as non-burnable fuel models.